FSSA Regional India Fund Monthly Manager Views

As the saying goes, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.” Recently, we have seen hordes of the latter kind, garbed as analysts, Unicorn founders, freshly-minted CEOs and so-called “experts”, as they engage in modern-day snake oil salesmanship, which is what seems to pass for Fundamental Equity Research these days. The difference between making forecasts and predictions is the difference between a rational investor and a soothsayer. Today, there are a number of companies and analysts who desperately pretend that a different set of rules apply to them. To that end, they have even invented a new jargon-littered language that has been enthusiastically adopted by the investing community. Some of the words and phrases being used (and over-used) these days make us wince. Let’s look at a few.

“TAM” or Total Addressable Market: When I started my career as an analyst 20 years ago, certain things were key to forecast what might become of a business over the long term (i.e. five to ten years). These included an understanding of the market size of a product or service and its growth potential; assessing why certain businesses in that industry were doing better or worse than others; and evaluating the management quality and figuring out the alignment (both financial and cultural). Today, it feels like all that analysis is now captured in one word, “TAM”, which companies are helpfully providing to analysts and they, in turn, end up using it as a fig leaf to justify almost anything – from the current small scale of the business, the pitiful margins, the ridiculous sales/marketing strategy and, of course, the outrageous valuation. It feels like the time when people used to mention enterprise value (EV)/click or EV/eyeballs or EV/square foot.

Unit Economics: We used to think that, for young businesses, one needs to see if it is able to generate a positive contribution margin to cover some of its fixed costs and then calculate how long it would take to achieve breakeven. But in the “free money” era, the term has become convoluted, as analysts are rewarding businesses who don’t want to do any of that. Customer Acquisition Cost is the new buzzword and Unit Economics have been reduced to some sort of weird distortion aimed at justifying massive upfront costs. We used to look at how much a company is spending on sales and marketing, analyse the mix of short-term promotions and long-term advertising (good old above and below the line costs – where is the line now we wonder?), how the sales team was organised, their incentive structures and what a business was doing to prevent mis-selling. Nowadays, that seems like a primitive way of trying to understand basic unit economics; what the phrase now means is anyone’s guess!

Value Proposition: “What is your value proposition?” analysts are asking companies these days. But, isn’t that something that the analyst needs to figure out? By all means, ask the management for their views, but regurgitating those same views without critical reasoning is pointless, in our view. What is it that makes a company generate superior returns on capital employed (ROCE) and what makes its growth and returns sustainable? It could be many things – a brand, technology, license, etc. But what we have been hearing (and what is often not said) is that the only value proposition many of these new businesses have is access to unlimited, unabashed funding.

Flywheel: A surprising number of management teams we meet these days are hard at work pushing “Flywheels” as they attempt to defy the gravity of flawed business models. The term was made popular by Amazon as a way to describe the virtuous cycle that happens when the whole business model is aligned to offer a remarkable customer experience. But it seems the term is now being used instead to provide a remarkable initial public offering (IPO) roadshow experience, which the analysts are lapping up.

Pivot: We have heard this word more in the last 12 months than ever before. Companies now are desperate to tell analysts their pivots in life; and they are pivoting quite often to the next fancy thing, which salivating analysts are gobbling up as it helps them to see the almighty “Path to Profitability”.

Path to Profitability: Another recent favourite. By brewing a concoction of TAM, Value Proposition and Unit Economics, with some Flywheels and Pivots along the way, the modern soothsayers are able to  discern a “Path to Profitability”. The whole sham is not unlike TV evangelists prescribing a path to heaven that they have divined. I am sure the CEOs of some of these companies would secretly love to find this path to the Promised Land that seems so obvious to some investors.

As more and more people are pivoting away from common sense, our team is resolved NOT to pivot away from our (admittedly) boring way of investing. We have been through these manias before and now, more than ever, we must be vigilant. Our goal is to keep it simple – preserve our clients’ capital and grow it steadily by investing in good businesses, run by good people, for the long term.

Important Information

This document is prepared by First Sentier Investors (Singapore) (“FSI”) (Co. Reg No. 196900420D.) whose views and opinions expressed or implied in the document are subject to change without notice. FSI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, whether direct or indirect, arising from any use of or reliance on this document. This document is published for general information and general circulation only and does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser and should read the Prospectus, available from First Sentier Investors (Singapore) or any of our Distributors before deciding to subscribe for the Fund. In the event that the investor chooses not to seek advice from a financial adviser, he should consider carefully whether the Fund in question is suitable for him.  Past performance of the Fund or the Manager, and any economic and market trends or forecast, are not indicative of the future or likely performance of the Fund or the Manager. The value of units in the Fund, and any income accruing to the units from the Fund, may fall as well as rise. Investors should note that their investment is exposed to fluctuations in exchange rates if the base currency of the Fund and/or underlying investment is different from the currency of your investment. Units are not available to US persons.

Applications for units of the Fund must be made on the application forms accompanying the prospectus. Investments in unit trusts are not obligations of, deposits in, or guaranteed or insured by First Sentier Investors (Singapore), and are subject to risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

Reference to specific securities (if any) is included for the purpose of illustration only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the same. All securities mentioned herein may or may not form part of the holdings of FSI’s portfolios at a certain point in time, and the holdings may change over time. In the event of discrepancies between the marketing materials and the Prospectus, the Prospectus shall prevail.

In Singapore, this document is issued by First Sentier Investors (Singapore) whose company registration number is 196900420D. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

First Sentier Investors (registration number 53236800B) and FSSA Investment Managers (registration number 53314080C) are business divisions of First Sentier Investors (Singapore). The FSSA Investment Managers logo is a trademark of the MUFG (as defined below) or an affiliate thereof.

First Sentier Investors (Singapore) is part of the investment management business of First Sentier Investors, which is ultimately owned by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (“MUFG”), a global financial group. First Sentier Investors includes a number of entities in different jurisdictions.

MUFG and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any statement or information contained in this document. Neither MUFG nor any of its subsidiaries guarantee the performance of any investment or entity referred to in this document or the repayment of capital. Any investments referred to are not deposits or other liabilities of MUFG or its subsidiaries, and are subject to investment risk, including loss of income and capital invested.