A monthly review and outlook of the Global Listed Infrastructure sector.
Market review - as at June 2024
Global Listed Infrastructure dipped in June, giving back some of May’s strong performance. The best performing infrastructure sector was Other (+3%), owing to gains from high beta Emerging Markets container port operators. Energy Midstream (+3%) stocks were buoyed by favourable operating conditions and a positive demand outlook. The worst performing infrastructure sector was Utilities / Renewables (-4%) as concerns around future policy support weighed on US-based renewables-focused stocks.
The best performing infrastructure region was the United Kingdom (+2%), reflecting positive returns from its electric utility stocks. The worst performing infrastructure region was Japan (-6%), whose electric utilities lagged on a more cautious outlook for the potential timing of nuclear power plant re-starts.
Market outlook and Strategy
The Portfolio invests in a range of listed infrastructure assets including toll roads, airports, railroads, utilities and renewables, energy midstream, wireless towers and data centres. These sectors share common characteristics, like barriers to entry and pricing power, which can provide investors with inflation-protected income and strong capital growth over the medium-term.
Toll roads remain the portfolio’s largest sector overweight. These stocks have benefited from a shift towards cars and away from public transport since the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, inflation-linked toll increases have had little impact on demand. High operating leverage (i.e. largely fixed costs as sales increase) has proved supportive of earnings growth. Improvements made to toll road networks in recent years provide scope for further growth in traffic volumes.
A substantial portion of the portfolio consists of utilities / renewables. The shift from coal generation to wind, solar and storage, supported in the US by the Inflation Reduction Act; along with the need for increased resiliency spend, should drive meaningful capital expenditure growth for this sector. Increased capex should in turn drive higher rate base and earnings growth for regulated utilities. This theme is being amplified by growth in data centres / AI, industrial onshoring and electric vehicles, which are driving a steady increase in demand for electricity — the first time in decades that this has been seen in many developed markets.
The portfolio remains underweight energy midstream. A rising oil price, robust US export levels and a disciplined approach to capital expenditure are enabling the sector to generate strong free cash flow. However, following a sustained period of positive performance, mispricing in this sector has become less evident. We have maintained high conviction positions in companies operating in low-cost basins; or that are positioned to benefit from growth in US exports.
Source : Company data, First Sentier Investors, as of 30 June 2024.
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