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We have written about the spate of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in India and our reasons for staying away from them, for the most part. This time, we want to talk about why new listings are important to keep the market vibrant and to keep the entrepreneurial spirit in the country alive.
Land, Labour, Capital and Entrepreneurship. These are the well-known “Factors of Production” as defined by classical economists. The Entrepreneur (or Company) is the one that combines these factors to earn a profit.
50x P/E!1 70x P/E! 100x P/E! Valuations that were outrageous just a few years ago are commonly bandied about by most of the investment community these days. But, ask any respected business owner and they would shake their head in disbelief
Year to date, 34 companies have listed on the Indian exchanges raising a total of USD7.2 billion1, a figure which has been surpassed in India only twice before in the last 12 years on an annual basis. In our Monthly Manager Views in April 2021, we spoke about the initial public offering (IPO) rush that we had begun seeing in India early this year. Unsurprisingly, we have seen this frenzy continue, similar to what has been observed in many global markets.
Our investment philosophy is to back owners and managers with whom we feel strongly aligned. These owners typically have track records of treating all stakeholders fairly, in both good and bad times.
End of Year Review
As the saying goes, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.” Recently, we have seen hordes of the latter kind, garbed as analysts, Unicorn founders, freshly-minted CEOs and so-called “experts”, as they engage in modern-day snake oil salesmanship, which is what seems to pass for Fundamental Equity Research these days.
As with global automotive manufacturers, several Indian automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) including Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors and Eicher Motors have recently announced that the shortage of semiconductor supply has impacted their production schedules. This has added to the persistent challenges faced by the industry over the last few years.
FSSA India webcast focus on the India Subcontinent Markets and Asia Pacific equities
Every company we speak to these days tells us about the cost pressure that they are facing, emanating from rising global commodity prices. Domestic steel prices have risen by 35% y/y, copper by over 50% y/y and palm oil by over 60% y/y through February 2021. Indian corporates are being forced to reckon with sharp increases in input costs for the first time in almost a decade. We believe that pricing power is often the critical litmus test of a franchise’s quality.
FSSA Investment Managers - India equities
We had entered the meeting with a leading air-conditioner company in our portfolio worried about the risks to its growth and profitability, as the second wave of Covid-19 affected consumer demand and raw material costs rose sharply. But the company’s CEO told us about the acceptance of increased prices by their channel partners and customers and strong demand before localised lockdowns were introduced in April. The company had reported a 24% growth in sales and more than doubling of its operating profit in the quarter ended March 2021, compared to the same period last year. He was optimistic about an improvement in their profitability despite a significant increase in raw material costs and was continuing their investments in expanding capacity.
In the first three months of this year, 17 new companies have listed on the mainboard exchanges in India, more than in all of 2019 or 2020*. High levels of retail investor participation and continuing inflows for domestic mutual funds have meant that these new issuances have been lapped up by eager investors. It is not unusual for an IPO to be subscribed 100 times of its offer size or deliver substantial gains on the listing day itself. Blogs track the fluctuating “grey market premium” weeks in advance, indicating likely listing gains. For many investors, receiving an allocation for the next hot deal often takes precedence over analysis of the business itself.
Check the latest First Sentier Investors fund price and fund performance, keep track of funds performance and trends to help investment selections.
Mutations, it would seem, are not unique to the virus. Starting with some housekeeping, we always end our letters seeking feedback from our regular readers.
FSSA Investment Managers Asia Pacific webcast: Positioning for Reflation
In our last client update, written through the depths of Covid-despair, we observed that real life and the world of markets are seldom so intimately entwined. With markets swinging violently to the downside on a riptide of fear, it was clear even then that activity was being driven by short-term anxiety rather than a real evaluation of Asia’s longer-term value-accretion prospects.
FSSA Investment Managers, Asia-Pacific, Asian equities
In almost every meeting that we have with management teams, we will ask about incentivisation. In our view, it is an important question and the answer can be highly revealing about an organisation’s culture and behaviour.
In 2020, one group of companies has done particularly well – the popular digital technology companies focused on e-commerce, delivery and entertainment, to name a few industries. In emerging markets, they dominate the Chinese market; but they can also be found in Korea, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. We do not own many of these in the strategy; and as such, we are often asked: What holds us back? After all, they have performed well and – at least on paper – should have the prerequisite to generate strong returns and free cash flow, given their often high gross margins, negative working capital profiles and asset light nature. While we are not disputing the potential for this in the future, we would argue for cautiousness on most of these projections.
Since our last update, global markets have not been short of action and the manic behaviour characterising today’s markets has taken investors on another rollercoaster ride. While not quite comparable to the market movements seen during the dark days of March 2020, the recent correction — especially in China-related companies — has been notable. Yet, from a market perspective, a sense of normality is finally starting to emerge after the more speculative phases over the past 12-18 months.
Though Covid hasn’t yet finished with us, the markets have finished with Covid. In real life, there is still plenty of misery to go around, but things have seldom been better for investors. Optimism has served us well, as the money printing presses have rolled to counter the “unprecedented” threat. In investment, perhaps it is better to be a stupid optimist than a clever pessimist. And, markets do indeed go up most of the time.
Last quarter I visited infrastructure companies in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya. The trip included visits to ten corporate head offices and three site tours. This paper seeks to share some of the key findings from my meetings with Japanese passenger rail and utility companies.
Global listed infrastructure underperformed in 2023 owing to rising interest rates and a shift away from defensive assets. Relative valuations are now at compelling levels. Infrastructure assets are expected to see earnings growth in 2024 and beyond, aided by structural growth drivers.
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